Archive for July, 2011

Taxpayer Beware Of Nama…

Taxpayer beware as Nama makes spectacular loss.

Loss-making Nama has become a seemingly endless gravy train. Worse still, it has emerged as a bailout for some of the same developers who have brought this country to its knees…

When it was announced by then Finance Minister Brian Lenihan during his emergency budget speech in April 2009, we were told it would get credit moving, we were promised it would not be a bailout for developers, we were told it wouldn’t be a gravy train for advisers, consultants and public sector fat cats and we were told it would make a profit.

Set up to save the country from the greed and recklessness of the banks and developers, including Liam Carroll, Bernard McNamara and Sean Dunne, Nama was an unprecedented development in Irish history.

But, more than two years on from its inception, there is no question on all of these fronts: Nama has failed and failed spectacularly, and the taxpayer should be very concerned indeed.

As last Thursday’s annual report revealed losses of €1.1bn — a truly incredible loss given its short lifespan — it was estimated that the organisation described earlier this year by Taoiseach Enda Kenny as a “secret society” could need up to €1bn of taxpayers’ money just to stay afloat, despite just three developers owing more than €2bn each, and nine others owing debts of over €1bn.

Because all of Nama’s forecasts are based on property price evaluations from November 2009, which have plummeted considerably since, of the €1.1bn losses reported in Thursday’s report, €1.485bn comes from revaluing loans at the end of 2010.

Given the continual slide so far this year, losses at the end of 2011 are very likely to be significantly worse, forcing Nama to seek more money from the taxpayer to cover what is likely to then be an ever-increasing hole in its balance sheet.

As a result, according to Namawinelake, a highly respected online blog about Nama, the bad bank could need a further injection from the taxpayer by the end of this year, given the scale of the losses already racked up, primarily due to falling house prices.

“Nama was created with a clean slate in December 2009. Perhaps it should be surprising, even shocking, therefore that the agency has racked up such a large loss in its first year of operation. Indeed, were it not for Nama’s accounting treatment of part of the consideration it pays the banks — the subordinated bonds which will only be honoured if Nama makes a profit — then Nama might have been forced into a position today of asking the Government for further capital of at least €1bn. It is an astounding loss,” the blog stated.

Now, these at the moment are paper losses which are hopefully going to be made up before its life is ended in nine years’ time, but given the continued drop in prices, such hopes seem wildly optimistic.

Two years on, Nama is losing over €1bn already, and likely to lose an awful lot more; it has become a very rich source of earnings for advisers and consultants; it has become the bailout for developers; and of course credit in the Irish system is still non-existent, despite countless promises.

Mother of all quangos:

Nama, by paying €30.5bn for loans previously worth €72.3bn, has become owner of the world’s biggest property portfolio, and has gone from an initial staff number of less than 10 to more than 150, and growing — among the best paid public servants in the country — with a salary bill of €10.3m.

In total, 122 senior personnel at Nama and the National Treasury Management Agency are being paid in excess of €100,000. CEO Brendan McDonagh, we were told by the report, was paid a salary of €430,000 and expenses, and a car allowance of €23,000.

He did, God bless him, forgo his bonus — worth up to 60 per cent of his salary. I suppose losing €1bn in your first year may have something to do with that.

Chairman Frank Daly, the former Revenue tsar, pocketed €159,116 for his trouble, while Michael Connolly, the chair of the credit committee, received €146,374.

In total, board and committee fees for last year came to €589,341.

Gravy train for legal and financial advisers:

According to the report, Nama has racked up €46m in administration costs.

As part of that, throughout 2010, Nama spent approximately €100,000 a day on financial and legal experts. Legal advisers, including firm Arthur Cox, were paid €485 an hour for carrying out due diligence on loans transferred to Nama, according to information in this latest and previous reports.

Price Waterhouse Cooper (PWC) was alone paid €1.9m in January 2010 for offering “set-up advice”.

Between April and May of 2010, PWC was also paid €60,000 a week or €400 per hour per consultant.

A further €15m was paid to Capita Asset Services and the banks for administering the loans. Despite McDonagh saying the banks performed “well below” acceptable standards in their dealings with Nama, the banks are to receive up to €72m this year for administering the loans.

According to its earlier report, accountancy firm KPMG was also paid €5.8m during the first six months in 2010 for loan evaluations.

The report said boldly that legal and tax fees amounted to €4m, a modest sum. However, a more in-depth read of the report reveals that fees to lawyers last year were actually €30m higher, due to “necessary expenditure on securing legal due diligence and valuation services”. Nama said these fees have been recouped from the banks, but given that the taxpayer now owns the banks and has pumped over €70bn into them so far, we are paying for these fees either way.

Bailout for developers:

Last Thursday’s report gave us confirmation that Ireland’s destruction and collapse was a result of the greed, recklessness and sheer incompetence of property speculators who, through their actions, have brought this country to its knees.

You would think that these people would be somehow held to account, brought to task, made accountable for what they did.

In Nama’s early days, Brendan McDonagh said they would. At an Oireachtas Committee last year, he declared, “I want to dispel any notion that Nama is a bailout for developers. It is no such thing.”

Frank Daly chipped in that the “jets, the yachts, Bentleys or whatever” would not be supported by Nama.

But now we know the truth. Nama is going much softer on the developers than it has claimed.

Apart from the one or two sacrificial lambs like Liam Carroll and Bernard McNamara, who appear to be carrying the collective shame on their shoulders, many of the other big borrowers are now doing very well out of Nama.

Earlier this year, this newspaper confirmed that, despite the collapse in the value of their properties, a number of the leading developers are currently in receipt of salaries in excess of €200,000, and are continuing to live the lifestyles they enjoyed before the crash.

And apparently the Nama bosses have no problem with that, as long as they are paying the interest on their loans. That’s the interest, not the core loan itself.

“If you are paying the interest, you can have the lifestyle you want,” McDonagh said on RTE radio.

Asked why a coterie of developers should be in receipt of six-figure salaries, given the losses facing the taxpayer, my Nama source explained the agency’s rationale.

“The way we see it, Nama could bring in a receiver to deal with a portfolio. Say the portfolio is €100m. The receiver will want a 1 per cent commission to handle that, or €1m from the off. Once you appoint him, the same receiver may well come back and admit he’s only an accountant. Then you’re looking at engaging property advisers etc.

“So if we can get a developer to work for us for €200,000, and get his team for another €200,000, at €400,000 that’s a good deal for us and the taxpayer,” he said.

And let’s not forget the payment of €810,845 to Nama developers Johnny Ronan and Richard Barrett of Treasury Holdings, in rent for office space.

But there is more: now we know that these developers could earn millions in incentivised bonuses should they meet the core part of their loans — not the whole amount, but only the amount Nama needs to cover its costs.

“If a debtor fully co-operates with Nama, then the additional proceeds will be divided — 90 per cent to Nama and 10 per cent to the developer.”

So in a case where even though the full amount of the original loan has not been paid, once a development realises a profit of €20m above what Nama paid, the developer will get an incentivised bonus of €2m.

So, if it walks like a bailout, talks like a bailout and looks like a bailout, guess what? It is a bailout.

The Nama story so far has been a sorry tale of woe for the taxpayer. But, worryingly, that isn’t likely to change any time soon.

In fact, it’s likely only to get worse.

Report by Daniel McConnell – Sunday Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

Web Jam For NAMA Properties…

Web jam as 10,000 download list of NAMA properties…

NAMA’S list of property for sale was downloaded by 10,000 people in just a day and a half as bargain hunters scoured the list for cheap deals.

A spokesman for toxic debt agency NAMA revealed last night that it was forced to make emergency changes to its website in order to cope with the unprecedented web traffic.

It came after NAMA made a list of 850 properties it is selling through receivers available for the first time.

The list features property in 25 of the 26 counties as well as Northern Ireland and the UK.

The assets listed include everything from car park spaces and bedsits, through to family homes and significant commercial and industrial assets.

NAMA is not directly selling any of the property but its 150 staff have been inundated with enquiries since the list went live, sources at the agency said.

NAMA is now looking at ways to make the property list easier for the public to access.

It also intends to update the online list on a monthly basis — a sure sign the agency expects to appoint a steady stream of receivers to assets held by more of the 850 people that owe money to the agency.

If NAMA does update the property list every month it will give a unique insight into where demand for Irish property assets really lie in the current market.

Monitoring which properties come off the list every month will show whether it is family homes, commercial premises or farmland that are selling fastest.

Report by Donal O’Donovan – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

NAMA Fire Sale Bargains…

NAMA fire sales aim to breathe life back into market…

Thousands chase property at knockdown prices as NAMA puts houses, farms, pubs and apartments up for sale.

BARGAIN hunters came out in force yesterday after bad bank NAMA put nearly 1,000 properties up for sale in the largest single sell-off in the history of the State.

The prospect of picking up a farm, pub, quarry, three-bed semi, hotel, apartment — even an airport — sparked an unprecedented wave of interest within hours of the list being published.

NAMA chiefs even promised to finance some of the sales as the agency announced losses of €1.18bn on dealings for last year.

It also revealed the extent to which NAMA is to recover money from reluctant debtors. In one case — and as late as this week — it seized jewellery worth €200,000 that had been given to a developer’s partner.

NAMA bosses insisted they were not running a fire sale and kept asking prices and bids received a closely guarded secret last night.

But the reality is the agency will have to accept knockdown prices to get the property market moving and to meet strict financial targets laid down by the IMF.

That knowledge, combined with curiosity and thirst for a bargain, sent thousands on to the internet last night to pore over the portfolio.

Within hours, more than a thousand people had downloaded details.

NAMA’s own switchboard was inundated and its staff fielded hundreds of enquiries — before directing callers to the receivers that are handling the sales.

The list runs to 850 properties — some of which are entire apartment blocks.

It includes everything from London pubs to fields in Offaly. But the 850 figure represents only one-tenth of the total number of property loans in NAMA.

The so-called ‘bad bank’ is even considering adding fine wines, art collections and jewellery that its officials have seized from troubled developers in its efforts to recoup money for the taxpayer.

NAMA is owed e72bn by borrowers from Ireland and abroad.

So far it has generated e2.6bn from sales and rental income.

The agency has also lent a further e900m in working capital to developers to finish off projects.

The agency has so far spent e46m on legal, audit, tax and board fees during the year.

Chief executive Brendan McDonagh earns a salary of e430,000, with chairman Frank Daly receiving e159,116.

The scale of the agency’s customer debt was also laid bare yesterday.

For example, three developers owe more than e2bn each, but NAMA refused to name them. Another nine owe more than e1.5bn each.

Among the biggest debtors with NAMA are Sean Mulryan, Treasury Holdings, Joe O’Reilly of Castlethorn Construction, and Derek Quinlan, a former tax inspector.

Transparency

For all its new-found transparency, NAMA still cannot reveal how much even the biggest debtors owe, or even who they are.

Mr McDonagh admitted yesterday that some developers had failed to make a fill disclosure of their assets when asked.

“Some of them forgot to put some things on the list,” he said.

However, he said the lavish lifestyles of developers were now over.

“The helicopters are grounded,” Mr McDonagh added.

Information on hidden assets was also becoming available.

“Ireland is a small country. It’s amazing what people might mention they know — information that is always welcome.”

The launch of the NAMA list is a marketing coup on a scale not seen since fake punters queued over night for unavailable Dublin apartments at the height of the boom.

NAMA said it went public with the lists in the interest of transparency, but bargain hunters are hoping it’s a sign the toxic loan agency is under pressure to up the pace in shifting its €30.5bn property book.

The list of properties runs to more than 800 so far– some of those listed include multiple units in apartment blocks and retail centres, so there are more than 1,000 units involved altogether.

Even that number is just a tenth of the total number of property loans in NAMA.

Report – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

Luxury Social Housing…

Luxury flats to be set aside for social housing…

THEY once had a price tag of almost €1.5m each but now a set of luxury apartments nestled in the foothills of the Dublin Mountains are being sold for an average of just €177,500.

And instead of attracting Celtic Tiger cubs, some of the high-end dwellings are being set aside for social housing.

A total of 58 apartments in the Beacon South Quarter, Sandyford, which are in NAMA, have been purchased by the voluntary housing body Cluid.

The apartments, which were built at the height of the boom, have views over Dublin and are serviced by the M50 and the Luas.

Receiver

They were bought from a receiver appointed by NAMA to the development company Landmark Enterprises.

It is the first such deal between NAMA and a voluntary body and will see 34 of the apartments going to people on the social housing list for Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown local authority.

The remaining 24 will be rented through the private market.

Three-quarters of the €10.3m needed to purchase the apartments was provided by the State-owned Housing Finance Agency (HFA).

The rest of the funding came from Cluid’s own resources and the Capital Advance Leasing Facility (CALF), a new facility created to support the acquisition of new homes using funding from financial institutions.

Cluid director of operations Neil Bolton said the deal represented a sea change in how social housing was funded.

“In the past, it was the norm for projects developed by voluntary bodies like Cluid to be 100pc grant-funded through Exchequer sources, but this is no longer an option,” he revealed.

“The recession has forced us to explore different ways to fund the delivery of new social housing. Public funds are extremely scarce, but demand for social housing continues to grow.”

The new occupants of the Beacon South Quarter apartments will receive the keys for their homes in the autumn.

Report by Kevin Keane – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

House Prices Still Falling…

House prices still falling – Dublin tops the list…

House prices in Dublin are nearly 47pc off their peak in early 2007 compared with 39pc in the rest of the country, according to the Central Statistics Office.

In the year to June, residential property prices at a national level fell by 12.9pc.

This compares with an drop of 12.2% in May and a decrease of 12.4pc recorded in the twelve months to June 2010.

In Dublin, residential property prices decreased by 2.4pc in June and were 12.6pc down compared with a year ago.

House prices in the capital fell by 2.4pc last month and were 11.9pc lower on an annual basis.

But economists believe that while the jobs market remains weak, within five years house prices should improve but very slowly.

“The bottom line is that the property market remains very ‘soft’ at the moment,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham Stockbrokers.

“ But looking further ahead, we think house prices should increase on a five-year view as the labour market improve.

“That said, the level of any rise over the next few years is only likely to be in single digits as banks adopt a more cautious stance to lending than in the ‘Celtic Tiger’ era, interest rates return to ‘normal’ and the introduction of a property tax for ‘principal’ homes of residence all weigh negatively on the market.”

Report – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

Bertie’s Bewildering Celtic Tiger Tips…

Bertie bags ,000 – for tips on Celtic Tiger ‘success’…

FORMER Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is charging American companies a fortune to present a new lecture — about how he transformed our economy in the Celtic Tiger boom.

The man targeted by many as the architect of our crippling recession, is charging more than ,000 (€27,554) a time for speaking engagements with the elite Washington Speakers Bureau.

During the lecture, Mr Ahern offers tips to bosses of leading firms on how to be competitive.

The former Fianna Fail leader has been employed for a number of years as one of the highest-paid speakers with the bureau — whose motto is ‘Connecting you with the world’s greatest minds’ .

In his latest lecture — entitled ‘Prime Minister as CEO’ — he tells listeners to adopt Ireland’s Celtic Tiger as a model of economic growth.

Last night it was described as “bewildering”.

Bosses of the bureau refused to reveal the number of times Mr Ahern has been hired for engagements.

However, a well-placed source said he is now one of the most sought-after of the 346 speakers on their books.

His fee, which is listed as being more than US,000, is in the top bracket and shared by just 57 other mostly American speakers, including former US President George W Bush.

A gushing profile, listed on the website of the bureau, pays tribute to what many regard as Mr Ahern’s greatest achievement in office — his key role in forging the Good Friday Agreement.

But it is his speech on the economy which promises to reveal how Irish citizens accepted “short-term sacrifices to achieve long-term gain”, which has raised most eyebrows.

The outline of the speech reads: “Leading the turnaround of an entire country is akin to the constant evolution companies and organisations must undergo to remain competitive.

“Bertie Ahern dedicated his career to re-inventing his country’s economic and political stakes in global affairs. He persuaded his fellow politicians and citizens to accept short-term sacrifices to achieve long-term gain.

“His ability to persuade his constituents to follow his vision provides lessons for even the most seasoned executives.”

In this thought-provoking presentation, Mr Ahern describes:

?His approach to developing and executing a successful long-term vision.

?How to persuade employees, customers and stakeholders to participate and embrace change.

?What every leader must do to achieve large-scale success.

?How to successfully bring people with you by building consensus.

Labour TD Ciaran Lynch last night said he was astonished that companies would want to employ Mr Ahern to give them advice on how to be competitive.

And he said the news would sit badly with the majority of the Irish population, particularly people crippled by debt due to “the errors made when Mr Ahern was Taoiseach”.

He added: “It’s absolutely bewildering, particularly given the worldwide coverage of Ireland’s economic collapse, that he’s being promoted as a strategic thinker for companies.

“The mismanagement of the Irish company happened under his watch and it must be frustrating for the Irish public to hear about the huge payments he’s getting for this speech, while so many of them live in desperate situations.”

Mr Ahern also gives three other speeches for the bureau — ‘Leadership in Changing Times: What It Takes to Succeed’, ‘The Future Role of the European Union on the World Stage’ and ‘Peace Through Inclusive Dialogue: Ireland’s Journey’.

Report by Nick Bramhill – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

New Irish Property Tax…

More pain as households hit with new €100 ‘property’ tax…

ALMOST all households are set to be hit with a new €100 service charge to be announced this week, the Irish Independent has learned.

The Cabinet will sign off on the combined water and property tax tomorrow, despite the easing of the debt burden under the new EU bailout deal.

Environment Minister Phil Hogan is coming under pressure to exempt those on low incomes from the new tax, which will result in middle-income earners paying more.

The Government is expecting to bring in upwards of €150m from the charge.

The flat-rate levy, to be introduced next year, will be the first tough decision to be taken by the Coalition that will prove unpopular to the overwhelming majority of people.

The options for the annual charge range from €100 to €200 a year. The likely outcome is a sum at the lower range of €100, with a small number of exemptions — the solution favoured by Mr Hogan. However, this will have to be approved by the Cabinet.

“If you go into massive numbers of exemptions, you won’t raise the funds required. The idea is to have a small amount and a small number of waivers,” a source said.

There are 1.8 million households in the country and only about 10pc of homes — between 150,000 and 200,000 — will not have to pay the new tax.

However, the tax will be payable by the property owner, meaning landlords will have to pay the bill and are therefore expected to pass on the costs to their tenants in higher rents. This provision will affect a host of social welfare recipients and low-income earners.

The collection of the household service charge is expected to follow the model of the tax on second homes, which is payable on the internet.

Failure to pay the household service charge will result in penalties being applied. The amount to be paid is being announced now to give ample warning before its introduction in January.

The funding will go directly to local authorities and the councils’ grant from central government will be reduced by the same amount.

After promising to let people know how much they will be paying before the Dail summer break, there was some doubt cast last week over whether the decision would be kicked to touch again.

The charge will form part of the €3.6bn worth of additional taxes and spending cuts in next year’s Budget.

The new tax will be greeted with hostility, particularly as it comes in the wake of the new EU deal resulting in a saving of about €1bn a year in bailout loan repayments.

Left-wing groups are already planning to oppose the tax.

However, Transport Minister Leo Varadkar said yesterday this year’s Budget deficit of €18bn still had to be brought down — regardless of the national debt or banking crisis.

Debate

The Cabinet will debate the new tax at its meeting tomorrow, with the details announced afterwards. Bringing in property and water charges was a condition of the bailout deal reached with the IMF/EU.

The Government will attempt to soften the blow by saying the new charge breaks down to just €1.92 a week and goes toward the provision of local council services, such as water, sewerage, road maintenance and fire brigades. It will argue this is the way local services should ideally be funded and is the system in place in most European countries.

The charges will be accompanied by a PR campaign to explain where the funds go.

The rollout of the new household service charge will be a precursor to a property tax.

The Cabinet is also due to discuss the installation of water meters in every house in the country. But this scheme will take several years to introduce.

Once houses are metered, water charges will be introduced.

Householders will be given a basic allowance of water for free and pay for anything they use over and above that amount.

The formal property tax will also come in once a valuation system is set up.

Rather than a flat-rate charge, the sum to be paid will be based upon the value of the house or its size.

Again, such a comprehensive valuation system will take several years to establish.

Report by Fionnan Sheahan – Irish Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

Depression Surge In Rich Suburbs…

Depression surge in rich suburbs over cash worries…

Affluent areas see huge jump in demand for mental health services.

The number of anxiety and depression disorders in the country’s richest neighbourhood has more than doubled since the recession.

People worried about their mortgages, losing their jobs and paying private school fees in Dalkey, Blackrock, and Dun Laoghaire, are flocking to their GPs for treatment for mental health conditions.

Householders living in the affluent neighbourhood, which is home to U2′s Bono, Enya, and film director Neil Jordan, are becoming ill as they struggle to pay their bills.

The clinical director of the Cluain Mhuire Community Mental Health Services for Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Dr Siobhan Barry, said there has been a huge jump in the number of referrals to their services between 2008 and 2009, when the recession hit the country.

The remarkable increase in the numbers attending the public service is also thought to be caused by an increase in patients who used private healthcare in the past.

Before the economic downturn in 2006, there were just over 8,000 (8,076) patients referred by their GP to the St John of God out-patient service, but by 2009 the figure had doubled to over 16,000 (16,676).

Consultant psychiatrist Dr Barry said GPs were citing financial problems in their referral letters.

She said: “There are a lot of anxiety disorders and a certain level of low-mood depression with these kinds of conditions directly linked to the financial recession. I would certainly say that around a third of the referrals from GPs certainly contain references to financial problems and there were virtually none previously.

“In national terms it would be the most affluent catchment area although it has always had pockets of deprivation.

“GPs are saying that people are under financial strain and worrying about making ends meet, which is contributing to a lack of sleep. This type of financial worry can trigger an anxiety disorder.

“There has been a huge jump in the number of referrals from 2008 to 2009. Our feeling is the numbers have increased due to the economic situation and the amount of new people who might have attended elsewhere previously in a private capacity.”

The number of people looking for treatment for mental health disorders also coincides with a dramatic rise in the numbers on the live register in Dun Laoghaire.

In the last five years the numbers signing on in the suburb has almost tripled from 2,580 people in 2006 to 7,928 last month (June 2011).

Dr Barry said: “People are presenting with recession-related problems around financial security. They are worried their employment is going to go or their shares have gone.

“In south county Dublin there are quite a high number of fee-paying schools and a lot of the population would themselves have gone to fee-paying schools.

“When they can no longer afford the fees there is a huge personal sense of shame.

“People are reporting that they are becoming fearful, unable to sleep, frightened of what is coming down the tracks and that they become mentally paralysed.”

She said the services had found that practical help to tackle finances can often provide a huge sense of relief.

She said: “We are referring patients to social workers. They try to get them to take practical steps and go through their financial circumstances.

“The second part of the intervention is helping people to become calmer and more accepting.”

Report by LYNNE KELLEHER – Sunday Independent

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

More Irish Property Auctions…

New mass sale in autumn…

More property auctions are on the cards as owners seek fast sales in an uncertain market.

KNIGHT FRANK is the latest estate agency firm to enter the mass auction market with plans to to hold a sale of 30 to 40 homes on a single day in the autumn.

The company, which specialises in prime Dublin and country property, is currently scouting for suitable homes to include in an auction scheduled for October.

The two auctions held by the Allsop/Space partnership, in April and earlier this month, have shown that there is a market for distressed properties at knockdown prices. Allsop/Space plans to hold a third auction in September with over 100 properties, the vast majority of which are being sold by receivers and banks. Savills is also planning to hold a distressed property sale in the autumn and is believed to be in negotiations with banks to sell their distresed stock. However, Knight Frank sees an opportunity in selling homes for owners rather than for banks and receivers. “We feel there is market for auctions. We feel there is a market for people who simply want to sell on the day,” says Robert Ganly of Knight Frank. “We plan to issue disclosed reserves which makes it easier for would be buyers.”

Meanwhile in Galway, O’Donnellan Joyce sold over €5 million worth of property at three weekly auctions between July 1st and July 15th. Over 600 people attended the three auctions at which 19 properties were sold under the hammer.

These included terraced houses and businesses in Salthill as well as holiday homes, apartments in the city centre and large family homes in the Galway suburbs.

Report by ORNA MULCAHY – Irish Times

Ireland Property – Daft Property – http://daftproperty.blogspot.com

Last Chance For Euro…

Eurozone governments in last-chance saloon to save the single currency…

All of the metaphors have been used — from edge-of-a-cliff, meltdowns and hanging threads — but the real terror confronting the eurozone is that its banks, out of fear that other banks’ solvency is threatened by default on sovereign debt, could stop lending to one another.

This would bring the credit system to a halt and the ensuing liquidity crisis would, if left unresolved, result in insolvency and default. European economies could languish in deep recession for a decade or more and this is how a euro crisis would play out — in sets of insolvency, uncertainty and illiquidity.

So what exactly happened to the eurozone officials over the past 10 days?

First, finance ministers admitted there may need to be a default on sovereign debt. They did not specify for which country or in what form. Instead, they tried to duck out for their summer holidays and said the details would be announced in September. Markets were left to wonder where the axe would fall.

Not surprisingly, the markets and the credit-rating agencies caught the departing ministers by the collar and said this was not good enough. Irish debt was junked and the markets signalled a new low in their confidence in the ability of the eurozone to handle the crisis by raising interest rates on Italian and Spanish debt. This heightened the possibility that the crisis could spiral beyond the financial capacity to manage it. In response, eurozone officials simply condemned the markets and the credit agencies.

Meanwhile, the ECB continued to fiddle with inflation on the banks of the River Main, insisting that it really does not have any role to play in resolving the wider crisis. It has helped to manage the crisis thus far but threatens to pull the plug on Greek banks if there is even a whiff of default on Greek debt. This withdrawal of liquidity could catapult the crisis beyond control, but, while making such threats, Jean-Claude Trichet insists that the euro is a stable currency.

Stress tests on banks suggested they might need €3bn in new capital, but market analysts said this was not credible and the need might be as high as €80bn. Nervous markets are unlikely to want to recapitalise banks to this extent, especially when they still do not see a solution to the crisis, and this makes them even more nervous.

So eurozone leaders reluctantly agreed “to discuss the financial stability of the euro-area as a whole and the future financing of the Greek programme”. We are warned in advance, however, that today’s three-hour summit will not produce a final solution to the problem.

So where does that leave us?

Governments made significant progress in their understanding of the euro crisis in recent weeks and finally admitted that it was a common problem — requiring a shared solution — and not a set of isolated events. The euro group committed “to enhancing the flexibility and the scope” of its response and to lengthening the maturities of loans and lowering interest rates.

This new approach gave expression to what Ajai Chopra of the IMF nicely termed “a European solution to a European problem”.

But new approaches need to be fully elaborated, anticipate market reaction and be quickly implemented for maximum effect. Otherwise, markets can panic and block implementation. They will immediately ask the big questions unless all of the answers are spelled out in advance — and will sell Spanish debt if they do not know how the new plan will save it.

And a lot of questions need to be answered.

The IMF says that the Greek programme is “on a knife-edge” and admits that it would probably walk away from the whole deal if the global financial repercussions would not be so catastrophic. A bigger effort, including debt restructuring, is required and the summit may give a general indication of how this could be achieved.

But, debt restructuring — or private sector involvement (PSI) — will rattle the markets and this needs to be anticipated and provided for.

The IMF warns that “given the impact PSI could have on Greece’s credit rating, it is imperative for euro-area member states to put in place mechanisms to guarantee liquidity support to Greece’s banking system while a PSI operation is undertaken”. Moreover, it is “absolutely essential for the sustainability of the program that the ECB stands ready to provide liquidity support if needed”.

And this is where the concern now lies: the crisis has already jumped another notch or two beyond the delayed understanding of the eurozone governments. The problem is no longer confined to finding a solution to the debt crisis — a solution that should have been spelled out a year ago — but now includes reaching agreement on how to deal with the financial fallout from any plan and putting the necessary structures in place.

This is what the IMF calls a “comprehensive approach”.

Today’s summit may present a last chance for eurozone leaders to forestall a blizzard in European credit markets and they will not get away with an incomplete response. The summer is still a long, long way off.

Gary O’Callaghan is Professor of Economics at Dubrovnik International University. He was a member of the staff of the IMF and has advised numerous governments on macroeconomic policies.

Report – Irish Independent

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